Hydro-economic risk assessment in the eastern Nile River basin

Arjoon et al. (2014) evaluated the longterm impacts of the GERD on the economic benefits of Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt and concluded that the GERD would increase the minimum annual economic benefits of the three countries from 4.9 to 5.6 billion US$, provided that Sudan fully uses its water share according to the 1959Nile Water Agreement (UN, 1964 and Ethiopia implements its planned irrigation schemes around Lake Tana. Arjoon et al. (2014) , applying a stochastic dual dynamic programming (SDDP) approach to assess the impact of the operation of the dam on the Eastern Nile economies, shows that water storage in the GERD would benefit downstream countries through improved irrigation and hydropower development and reduced hydrologic risks, particularly during dry years. Water resources development projects often involve multiple and conflict-ing objectives as well as stochastic hydrologic inputs. Multiobjective optimization tech-niques can be used to identify non-inferior solutions and to construct a trade-off rela-tionship between conflicting objectives. This paper presents a methodology for analyz-ing trade-offs and risks associated with large-scale water resource projects under hydro-logic uncertainty.

Hydrologic inputs are combined with agronomic and economic inputs to formulate an optimization model within the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). A sensitivity analysis is performed by testing model response to a range of economic conditions and to changes in the volume and timing of hydrologic flows. Results indicate that changing hydroclimate inputs have the capacity to greatly influence the productivity of Sudan’s water resource infrastructure.

gerd lahmeyer

This endeavor is controversially debated in the public and the scientific literature. Contributing to this discussion, by shading some light on climate change issues, an eco-hydrological model, equipped with a reservoir module, was applied to investigate downstream hydrological impacts during filling and regular operation, the latter considering climate change projected by an ensemble of 10 global and regional climate models. Our results show that at the earliest after 20 months, the dam could produce hydroelectric power.

These studies present various implementation strategies representing various levels of cooperation, but all show that there are significant economic benefits to be had through basin-wide cooperation. Arjoon et al. 2014; Teasley and McKinney 2011;Tilmant and Kinzelbach 2012;Whittington et 515 al. 2005), they also highlight obstacles to bilateral agreements.

Results also show that the economically optimal volume of water consumption, and thus the importance of existing treaty constraints, is sensitive to the perceived value of agriculture relative to electricity as well as to changing hydrological conditions. Close to the border with Sudan, Ethiopia is currently building the largest hydroelectric power plant in Africa with a storage volume corresponding to approximately 1.5 years of the mean discharges of the Blue Nile.

Stochastic dual dynamic programming (SDDP) is one of the few algorithmic solutions available to optimize large-scale water resources systems while explicitly considering uncertainty. This paper explores the consequences of, and proposes a solution to, the existence of multiple near-optimal solutions (MNOS) when using SDDP for mid- or long-term river basin management. These issues arise when the optimization problem cannot be properly parametrized due to poorly defined and/or unavailable data sets. This work shows that when MNOS exists, 1) SDDP explores more than one solution trajectory in the same run, suggesting different decisions in distinct simulation years even for the same point in the state-space, and 2) SDDP is shown to be very sensitive to even minimal variations of the problem setting, e.g. initial conditions — we call this “algorithmic chaos”.

The advantages are (1) guaranteeing positive streamflow values still maintaining problem linearity, and (2) making system adaptation faster during high variable periods. Model identification is straightforward, as with the additive periodic autoregressive model generally used in SDDP. The proposed model is applied on the Senegal River system for the optimal operation of Manantali Reservoir and evaluated against the streamflow process model currently used in the water management literature.

  • The pro-posed methodology is illustrated with the Southeastern Anatolia Development project, commonly called GAP, in Turkey.
  • To initiate such a discussion, in this paper we present the results of the first economic model designed to optimize the water resources of the entire Nile basin.
  • Full supply level may be reached after four years or not at all, depending on filling policies and assumptions of seepage rates.
  • In the hydrologic sector of the H-E model, WEAP was used to analyze and simulate of water resources according to the different crop patterns (results obtained from economic sector).
  • Electrical Engineer Julio Hildebrand is part of the Lahmeyer team advising Sudanese Hydro Generation Company Ltd (SHGC) on the dam’s rehabilitation and uprating.

Ethiopia is the main source of the Nile River, and the country urgently needs water for irrigation and hydro-electric power development. To-date, however, Ethiopia is the country in the Eastern Nile basin that uses the least amount of water from the Nile run-off.

We propose an institutional arrangement that distributes welfare in a river basin by maximizing the economic benefits of water use and then sharing these benefits in an equitable manner using a met hod developed through stakeholder involvement. Stochastic dual dynamic programming (SDDP) is one of the few methods available to solve multipurpose-multireservoir operation problems in a stochastic environment. This algorithm requires that the one-stage optimization problem be a convex program so that the efficient Benders decomposition scheme can be implemented to handle the large state-space that characterizes multireservoir operation problems. When working with hydropower systems, one usually assumes that the production of hydroelectricity is dominated by the release term and not by the head (storage) term to circumvent the nonlinearity of the hydropower production function.

Cooperative game theory offers useful insights for assessing cooperative solutions for water conflicts in international river basins. Applying cooperative game theory concepts such as core, nucleolus, and Shapley value to Nile water conflicts, we examine the incentive structure of both cooperative and noncooperative strategies for different riparian countries and establish some baseline conditions for incentive-compatible cooperation in the Nile basin. and natural resources.

gerd lahmeyer

Ethiopia also has ambitious plan to establish power trade relations with distant nations, including Egypt, South Africa, and even Yemen (Cuesta-Fernández 2015); however, to date infrastructure connections only reach Sudan. I am Julio Hildebrand, Electrical Engineer with MBA in Business Management, and member of the Electrical Engineering and Control Department at LI. During my career I have worked both in the electrical equipment industry and in the implementation of power generation projects, in a wide range of roles. This background gave me the experience to perform the consultancy activities comprised by my position, such as project development, owner’s engineering and project management.

The current literature mainly describes what is meant by the term benefit sharing in the the context of transboundary river basins and discusses this from a conceptual point of view, but falls short of providing practical, institutional arrangements that ensure maximum economic welfare as well as collaboratively developed methods for encouraging the equitable sharing of benefits. In this study we define an institutional arrangement that distributes welfare in a river basin by maximizing the economic benefits of water use and then sharing these benefits in an equitable manner using a method developed through stakeholder involvement.We describe a methodology in which (i) a hydrological model is used to allocate scarce water resources, in an economically efficient manner, to water users in a transboundary basin, (ii) water users are obliged to pay for water, and (iii) the total of these water charges are equitably redistributed as monetary compensation to users in an amount determined through the application of a sharing method developed by stakeholder input, thus based on a stakeholder vision of fairness, using an axiomatic approach. The whole system is overseen by a river basin authority. The methodology is applied to the Eastern Nile River basin as a case study. The described technique not only ensures economic efficiency, but may also lead to more equitable solutions in the sharing of benefits in transboundary river basins because the definition of the sharing rule is not in question, as would be the case if existing methods, such as game theory, were applied, with their inherent definitions of fairness.

gerd lahmeyer

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